According to the World Bank's latest EU10 Economic Report, Bulgaria and Romania, where the economic crisis hit later than elsewhere, are set to see the biggest improvements in growth in 2011 and 2012 among the second wave of EU member states.
Two and a half years after the global financial crisis began, economic activity in the EU10 has rebounded in parallel with the EU community as a whole. Following a double-digit expansion of industry, and a rebound in consumption, growth strengthened in the second half of 2010, states the report. It is further expected that, although it will be different in each of the 10 states, the pace of recovery among EU10 countries will strengthen in 2011 and 2012.
With a projected GDP growth of 4.4% in 2012, Romania is expected to lead the recovery, followed by Bulgaria with a forecast growth from 0.2% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.
The performance of Slovakia and Poland is set to remain stable, while Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are likely to build on the export-led upswing as domestic demand continues to recover. Growth in Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary is set to increase at a more measured pace because these countries have already converged more to EU income levels.
"The strong rebound in global trade has helped exports in the EU10, which recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010 ..." said Kaspar Richter, Senior Economist in the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Region and lead author of the report "... but growth prospects remain subject to fluctuations in private investments and international financial constraints."
Two and a half years after the global financial crisis began, economic activity in the EU10 has rebounded in parallel with the EU community as a whole. Following a double-digit expansion of industry, and a rebound in consumption, growth strengthened in the second half of 2010, states the report. It is further expected that, although it will be different in each of the 10 states, the pace of recovery among EU10 countries will strengthen in 2011 and 2012.
With a projected GDP growth of 4.4% in 2012, Romania is expected to lead the recovery, followed by Bulgaria with a forecast growth from 0.2% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.
The performance of Slovakia and Poland is set to remain stable, while Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are likely to build on the export-led upswing as domestic demand continues to recover. Growth in Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary is set to increase at a more measured pace because these countries have already converged more to EU income levels.
"The strong rebound in global trade has helped exports in the EU10, which recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010 ..." said Kaspar Richter, Senior Economist in the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Region and lead author of the report "... but growth prospects remain subject to fluctuations in private investments and international financial constraints."
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