April 5th 2011 saw the release of the first tranche of express data from February's national Census by Bulgaria's National Statistical Institute (NSI)
The data released covers a range of demographic factors, including: population change, internal migration, the age of the population and residency patterns. There is a lot more data to follow but a number of significant issues have already been established, notably population shifts in the major cities. Some 73 percent of the population now lives in cities and 27 percent in villages - but it is the changes in city populations that are currently generating most interest.
While Bulgaria's overall population has declined by around 580,000 people, there are four city regions around the country for which the NSI data shows positive population growth as a result of internal migration over the last 10 years. These regions are Sofia, Varna, Bourgas and Veliko Tarnovo which, together with Plovdiv, Rousse, Stara Zagora, Sliven, Dobrich and Pleven, are amongst the regions with the biggest populations in the country,
Clearly, population movements in a particular region are linked to demand for housing stock - so it is interesting to apply comparative data to consider how the city-by-city population changes revealed by the census may be related to the respective local property markets. Here, we can usefully employ further NSI research findings about regional property prices, together with data for the values of concluded property purchases from the Registry Agency.
Much of this information has already been analysed and complied in the recently published Ten year Review of the Residential Real Estate Market by our property partners, leading real estate agent, Bulgarian Properties and our subsequent summary review of this report - Five Key Points to pull from Major Property Report
In essence, the demographic trends from the census, the property pricing data from NSI and records for the value of completed purchases from the Registry Agency combine to form a clear pattern that shows a distinct correlation between regional population, property prices and local housing demand.
While there are one or two anomalies within this summary, such as the average value of completed purchases in the Bourgas region, for instance, this pattern is precisely what would be expected. It follows logically that prices will tend to be higher in areas with an increasing population and the extra demand that this places on available housing. What is surprising, though, is the degree of clarity and consistency with which the demographic data from the census maps directly on to property prices within particular reqions ... and because of this we can conclude that long-term trends and developments in the property market are influenced as much by local demographic factors as they are by external demands and foreign direct investments.
On the basis of these conclusions - and with a high degree of certainty - everybody seeking to purchase low-priced properties with high value-for-money potential can now focus their attention towards the cities and regions with a declining population while, on the other hand, the sectors of the property market with the greatest likelihood of growth in prices will be those with positive patterns of internal migration and increases in population, namely the cities and regions of: Sofia, Varna, Bourgas and Veliko Tarnovo.
All of which, of course, is very good news for today's buyer ...
The data released covers a range of demographic factors, including: population change, internal migration, the age of the population and residency patterns. There is a lot more data to follow but a number of significant issues have already been established, notably population shifts in the major cities. Some 73 percent of the population now lives in cities and 27 percent in villages - but it is the changes in city populations that are currently generating most interest.
While Bulgaria's overall population has declined by around 580,000 people, there are four city regions around the country for which the NSI data shows positive population growth as a result of internal migration over the last 10 years. These regions are Sofia, Varna, Bourgas and Veliko Tarnovo which, together with Plovdiv, Rousse, Stara Zagora, Sliven, Dobrich and Pleven, are amongst the regions with the biggest populations in the country,
Clearly, population movements in a particular region are linked to demand for housing stock - so it is interesting to apply comparative data to consider how the city-by-city population changes revealed by the census may be related to the respective local property markets. Here, we can usefully employ further NSI research findings about regional property prices, together with data for the values of concluded property purchases from the Registry Agency.
Much of this information has already been analysed and complied in the recently published Ten year Review of the Residential Real Estate Market by our property partners, leading real estate agent, Bulgarian Properties and our subsequent summary review of this report - Five Key Points to pull from Major Property Report
In essence, the demographic trends from the census, the property pricing data from NSI and records for the value of completed purchases from the Registry Agency combine to form a clear pattern that shows a distinct correlation between regional population, property prices and local housing demand.
While there are one or two anomalies within this summary, such as the average value of completed purchases in the Bourgas region, for instance, this pattern is precisely what would be expected. It follows logically that prices will tend to be higher in areas with an increasing population and the extra demand that this places on available housing. What is surprising, though, is the degree of clarity and consistency with which the demographic data from the census maps directly on to property prices within particular reqions ... and because of this we can conclude that long-term trends and developments in the property market are influenced as much by local demographic factors as they are by external demands and foreign direct investments.
On the basis of these conclusions - and with a high degree of certainty - everybody seeking to purchase low-priced properties with high value-for-money potential can now focus their attention towards the cities and regions with a declining population while, on the other hand, the sectors of the property market with the greatest likelihood of growth in prices will be those with positive patterns of internal migration and increases in population, namely the cities and regions of: Sofia, Varna, Bourgas and Veliko Tarnovo.
All of which, of course, is very good news for today's buyer ...
For advice, assistance and information about Moving to Bulgaria, we recommend that you visit our website at MovetoBG.com - and for accommodation options, resources and services, we suggest Bulgaria Gateway
No comments:
Post a Comment